Principles in action
Not Congress', but the American Union's
Kevin McCarthy’s recent election as Speaker of the House demonstrated two key principles of the American Union strategy. One, that politicians will make deals to get or keep power, and second, that a small percentage of voters can create the needed leverage.
How small of a percentage? While the balance of power in the 118th Congress was decided by just 0.033% of the 112 million votes cast, the American Union targets a 3.5% voting bloc. Harvard political scientist Erica Chenoweth has determined this to be the percentage of the population needed for nonviolent movements to secure political change.
McCarthy’s election hinged on this number; in the first round of voting, 434 members cast ballots and he received 203 votes. This left him 15 votes, or 3.5%, short of the majority he needed. After the longest Speaker election in 164 years, he prevailed on the 15th ballot. He succeeded in getting this bloc of votes to swing behind his election by making major concessions.
One of these was a rule change allowing a single member to make a motion to vacate the chair - essentially a vote of no confidence in the Speaker. Previously, McCarthy had said that five members was the lowest number that he would support, but with the office he wanted on the line, he was willing to cut a deal. This is typical for politicians.
Although his horse trading for votes was done within the House, other Congressional leaders have previously targeted the electorate directly. In the lame duck session after the 2020 election, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell rallied his caucus to support $600 stimulus checks for the American people. What was the reason for his change of heart after months and months of opposition? “Kelly [Loeffler] and David [Purdue] are getting hammered," he said, referring to the Republican candidates in the Georgia Senate runoffs that were about to determine if McConnell would keep his position for the next two years. (He didn’t, but 0.5% of voters could have flipped the outcome.)
As America prepares itself for two years of Congressional gridlock, including possible government shutdowns or even a default on the national debt, millions of people are wondering if there is a better way. There is: we can crowdsource the legislative process, and a unified bloc of swing votes can demand passage prior to the 2024 election. In 2023, members of the American Union will begin developing the legislative package that will be offered to all candidates for federal office next year.
If Kevin McCarthy wants to keep his job as Speaker, he will need to see his caucus remain in the majority. To earn the support of the American Union of swing voters, he’ll have to deliver legislative concessions, some of which he (and his caucus) will not like. Alternatively, he could willingly yield the gavel to a Democrat in the 119th Congress — but that doesn’t really seem in line with the style he demonstrated last week.
In 1947, after India’s independence and before their first national elections, Gandhi said, “If the people were to realize their power and use it wisely and well, things would right themselves.” The American people have the power to unionize as voters and collectively bargain for a better social contract. Will we realize it and use it wisely and well? Join the American Union for $7/month and a good faith pledge to vote together for federal candidates in 2024.